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skywatcher
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PostSubject: 97% cooked stats on global warming   Sun Jan 16, 2011 7:29 am

97% cooked stats - January 3, 2011 – 7:08 pm - Financial Post

The ‘scientific consensus’ about global warming turns out to have a lot more to do with manipulating the numbers

How do we know there’s a scientific consensus on climate change? Pundits and the press tell us so. And how do the pundits and the press know? Until recently, they typically pointed to the number 2,500 — that’s the number of scientists associated with the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those 2,500, the pundits and the press believed, had endorsed the IPCC position.

To their embarrassment, most of the pundits and press discovered they were mistaken — those 2,500 scientists hadn’t endorsed the IPCC’s conclusions, they had merely reviewed some part or other of the IPCC’s mammoth studies. To add to their embarrassment, many of those reviewers from within the IPCC establishment actually disagreed with the IPCC’s conclusions, sometimes vehemently.

The upshot? The punditry looked for and found an alternative number to tout: “97% of the world’s climate scientists” accept the consensus, articles in the Washington Post, the U.K.’s Guardian, CNN and other news outlets now claim, along with some two million postings in the blogosphere.

This number will prove a new embarrassment to the pundits and press who use it. The number stems from a 2008 master’s thesis by student Maggie Kendall Zimmerman at the University of Illinois, under the guidance of Peter Doran, an associate professor of Earth and environmental sciences. The two researchers obtained their results by conducting a survey of 10,257 Earth scientists. The survey results must have deeply disappointed the researchers — in the end, they chose to highlight the views of a subgroup of just 77 scientists, 75 of whom thought humans contributed to climate change. The ratio 75/77 produces the 97% figure that pundits now tout.

The two researchers started by altogether excluding from their survey the thousands of scientists most likely to think that the Sun, or planetary movements, might have something to do with climate on Earth — out were the solar scientists, space scientists, cosmologists, physicists, astronomers and meteorologists. That left the 10,257 scientists in such disciplines as geology, geography, oceanography, engineering, paleontology and geochemistry who were somehow deemed more worthy of being included in the consensus. The two researchers also decided scientific accomplishment should not be a factor in who could answer — those surveyed were determined by their place of employment (an academic or a governmental institution). Neither was academic qualification a factor — about 1,000 of those surveyed did not have a PhD, some didn’t even have a master’s diploma.

To encourage a high participation among these remaining disciplines, the two researchers decided on a quickie survey that would take less than two minutes to complete, and would be done online, saving the respondents the hassle of mailing a reply. Nevertheless, most didn’t consider the quickie survey worthy of response — just 3,146, or 30.7%, answered the two key questions on the survey:

1 When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?
2 Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?

The questions posed to the Earth scientists were actually non-questions. From my discussions with literally hundreds of skeptical scientists over the past few years, I know of none who claims the planet hasn’t warmed since the 1700s, and almost none who think humans haven’t contributed in some way to the recent warming — quite apart from carbon dioxide emissions, few would doubt that the creation of cities and the clearing of forests for agricultural lands have affected the climate. When pressed for a figure, global warming skeptics might say humans are responsible for 10% or 15% of the warming; some skeptics place the upper bound of man’s contribution at 35%. The skeptics only deny that humans played a dominant role in Earth’s warming.

Surprisingly, just 90% of the Earth scientists who responded to the first question believed that temperatures had risen — I would have expected a figure closer to 100%, since Earth was in the Little Ice Age in the centuries immediately preceding 1800. But perhaps some of the responders interpreted the question to include the past 1,000 years, when Earth was in the Medieval Warm Period, generally thought to be warmer than today.

As for the second question, 82% of the Earth scientists replied that human activity had significantly contributed to the warming. Here the vagueness of the question comes into play. Since skeptics believe human activity has been a contributing factor, their answer would have turned on whether they consider a increase of 10% or 15% or 35% to be a significant contributing factor. Some would, some wouldn’t.

In any case, the two researchers must have feared that an 82% figure would fall short of a convincing consensus — almost one in five wasn’t blaming humans for global warming — so they looked for a subset that would yield a higher percentage. They found it — almost — by excluding all the Earth scientists whose recently published peer-reviewed research wasn’t mostly in the field of climate change. This subset reduced the number of remaining scientists from over 3,000 to under 300. But the percentage that now resulted still fell short of the researchers’ ideal, because the subset included such disciplines as meteorology, which Doran considers ill-informed on the subject. “Most members of the public think meteorologists know climate, but most of them actually study very short-term phenomenon,” he explained, in justifying why he decided to exclude them, among others. The researchers thus decided to tout responses by those Earth scientists who not only published mainly on climate but also identified themselves as climate scientists.

“They’re the ones who study and publish on climate science,” Doran explained. “So I guess the take-home message is, the more you know about the field of climate science, the more you’re likely to believe in global warming and humankind’s contribution to it.”

Once all these cuts were made, 75 out of 77 scientists of unknown qualifications were left endorsing the global warming orthodoxy. The two researchers, the master’s student and her prof, were then satisfied with the findings of her master’s thesis. Are you?


Financial Post
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sky otter
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PostSubject: Re: 97% cooked stats on global warming   Sun Jan 16, 2011 10:47 am

lol!

i don't usually pay any attention to this crap because it is a waste of my time
but no football till next week, it's about 9 degees F out there and dim and i've been shut in for a few days
haven't taken a pic in a month
and i'm in a pissy mood..so don't take anything personally here

warning..it may turn into a rant

first off if any one thinks that a phd is some kind of elevation of intellect..you're way off
any phd person has had to toe the line for so long and be subject to so many others approval
that they can no longer think out of the box on anything
most have to get permission or read a paper on the subject just to choose a cereal for breakfast
so right off that nulifies anything a phd says to me..

secondly anyone who thinks we aren't having some kind of major earth changes has been in a
white jacket in a padded room for a few years

the latest finding that i have come across is that when the ice melted last time the seas rose
not 60 feet but 600 feet...no it wasn't by a phd either..lol
makes moving inland or higher up a good thought to check out

now if you have tried to growth anything outside for the last five years and are the least little bit
observent you have noticed a moving of the seasons..they don't fit the calendar any longer
nor does the weather fit the old program..
you are pretty much having to pay attention to the earth not the book stuff
at one time you could use the books and history to learn..not anymore they are so far apart
as to be like a joke

food wars..oh yeah ..on the way..money isn't going to help cause there will be nothing to use it for
better learn a trade or something you can barter with..or store some seeds

so that takes care of the phd's , scientifitic studies and most of the free world
so on to the published stuff...
reading anything any more especially on line is a lot like watching television or movies..
CRAP CRAP AND MORE CRAP

we have been subject to a dumbing down like in no other time..
we as so engaged with electronics we can't think for ourselves anymore
i saw a kid on his phone the other day litterally walk into a wall

where the hell was i going with this..grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
doesn't matter
i am feeling better..
thanks
and the sun is out..i think i'll go get some extra bright pics out in the snow..
hummmm
ok.. i like most people again

carry on

rockin lol!
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skywatcher
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PostSubject: Re: 97% cooked stats on global warming   Sun Jan 16, 2011 11:02 am

I'm sorry you're in a pissy mood.

At the end of the day, global warming in my view and opinion is man-made and the figures are manipulated into making the general public think there is going to be some global catastrophe in the near future.

Nothing is further from the truth, in fact, the earth is actually cooling down, not warming up. Nothing Man is doing is making a jot to the Co2 levels.

All this bullshit is so that they can get us all to pay yet another tax, carbon tax, for no other reason, other than they can.

So if anything is CRAP then, the this scenario of global warming is the epitome of that.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and if yours is to the contrary, then let it be so.



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sky otter
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PostSubject: Re: 97% cooked stats on global warming   Sun Jan 16, 2011 12:26 pm

sunny

ah skywatcher

sorry to stop in your thread and have my rant..
but
while i may not agree with the term global warming
you must agree
that we are having significant gobal weather change
and that is where i started
although i did go a little off track with my rant
so sorry about that


as far as being in a pissy mood..that to was due to weather
being shut in for some winter days does that to me
had nothing to do with you
that's why i said don't take it personal

now wheather we blame ourselves; i.e. world population, for what is happening
or
that it is just the earth doing it's thing
i feel is a moot point
something is still happening

however we are probably in agreement about being taxed for what is happening
taxing us all is just another piece of crap from the establishment
so on that we can agree

peace
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PostSubject: Re: 97% cooked stats on global warming   Sun Jan 16, 2011 3:02 pm

This is just my totally uneducated opinion. Take no notice of it cuz I aint no expert far from it.

As I have said before time and time again I have been going out at night and have found a total change in the sky map here. How can the moon jump from the west side of my house to the east side in one night. How can the constellations change.

My opinion is that the true magnetic north has changed a bit like they have said, therefore this could be changing a lot to do with weather, sea levels etc. As I said no expert but I would imagine even a slight change in poles could cause these changes.

As you all know cannot stand extremes of weather, but especially the heat, so warming up of the planet I would hate.
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PostSubject: Re: 97% cooked stats on global warming   Sun Jan 16, 2011 3:32 pm

Well isn't that why MSM changed it from global warming to 'climate change' because of the discrepancies in the warming.

Every planet in our solar system is going through the same global warming/climate change as earth

Mars- http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/odyssey/newsroom/pressreleases/20031208a.html
Jupiter - http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v428/n6985/abs/nature02470.html
Pluto- http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2002/pluto.html

To name a few.

The ideology is to control CO2 worldwide. To blame it on man to introduce another tax.

As Czech President Vaclav Klaus said about global warming/climate change in 2007, 'This ideology preaches earth and nature and under the slogans of their protection – similarly to the old Marxists – wants to replace the free and spontaneous evolution of mankind by a sort of central, now global, planning of the whole world.'
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